← Grand Archive Store Championship
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Water Allies | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |